Last updated on: 05/06/2026 11:20
The simulation comprises 10,000 runs. The graph presents the top 100 outcomes; accordingly, only outcomes accounting for more than 1% of all runs are displayed. More granular results are provided in the accompanying tables.
| Party | Bottom 5% |
Top 95% |
Average | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 18 | 32 | 25.2 | 25 |
| B'Yachad (Bennett and Lapid) | 15 | 26 | 20.5 | 21 |
| Yashar! | 12 | 22 | 16.9 | 17 |
| Unified Arab List | 7 | 17 | 12.0 | 12 |
| Shas | 7 | 12 | 9.3 | 9 |
| The Democrats | 7 | 12 | 9.2 | 9 |
| Israel Beitanu | 6 | 12 | 8.9 | 9 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 6 | 11 | 8.0 | 8 |
| United Torah Judaism | 4 | 10 | 7.2 | 7 |
| Religious Zionists | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 4 |
| Ballad | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Ra'am | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Hadash-Ta'al | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Blue and White | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| The Reservists (HaMiluimnikim) | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Yesh Atid | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Bloc | Bottom 5% |
Top 95% |
Average | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Coalition | 43 | 61 | 52.2 | 52 |
| The Opposition | 47 | 64 | 55.5 | 55 |
| Arab Parties | 8 | 18 | 12.5 | 12 |
| Coalition Majority: 5.66% |
| Opposition Majority (without Arab parties): 15.45% |
| No Majority without Arab parties: 78.89% |
| More Seats for the Coalition: 33.99% |
| More Seats for the Opposition (without Arab parties): 61.52% |
| Coalition-Opposition Tie (without Arab parties): 4.49% |
